A University of Colorado (CU) analysis of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election predicts that Mitt Romney will win the election in November. The model used for the prediction is one who has correctly predicted all presidential elections since 1980, including George W. Bush losing the well-liked vote but still winning the election in 2000. [Details Here]

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Michael Berry, political science professor at CU. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What is still seen is whether or not voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the previous, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. Inside the latter case, Romney should pick up numerous states Obama won in 2008.”

The prediction model uses an analysis of financial factors to decide an outcome for every of the 50 U.S. states. It was developed by Berry and his fellow CU political science professor Kenneth Bickers. Two of the standards the model takes into consideration include state and national unemployment numbers and changes in real per capita income, either one of which affect Democratic and Republican candidates differently.

The study has predicted that President Barack Obama will only receive 218 electoral votes, far in need of the 270 had to win the election. It also predicts that Romney will receive 52.9% of the preferred vote.

“The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, just isn’t great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in lots of of the states.” said Bickers.

The Berry and Bickers study could be published on this month’s Political Science & Politics. An update to their analysis using more moderen economic data may be coming in September.